Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
FDD Intelligence Briefing
September 22, 2008

What happened?

• The Incident: Surveillance video shows that around 8:00 p.m. on Saturday, Sept. 20, a truck rammed into the security gate about 60 feet away from Islamabad’s Marriott Hotel and burst into flames. Hotel guards (unaware that the truck contained around 1,300 pounds of military-grade explosives, TNT, and aluminum powder) gathered around it, and one tried to put out the fire with an extinguisher. Then a second, massive explosion devastated the hotel.

• The Aftermath: As of this morning, at least 53 people are believed dead and 266 injured. Casualties include Czech ambassador Ivo Zdarek and two American service members assigned to the U.S. embassy in Islamabad.

What does it mean?

• Al-Qaeda’s Involvement: Intelligence officials believe that the bombing was the work of al-Qaeda or one of its close Pakistani affiliates, with Pakistani interior minister Rehman Malik blaming the Tehrik-i-Taliban. It certainly bears the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda operation, including being a mass casualty attack against a symbolic target at a symbolic time.

• Zardari Targeted?: This plot may have been aimed at new Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari, who delivered his first address to a joint session of parliament earlier on Saturday. In the address, Zardari spoke of the need to “root out terrorism and extremism wherever and whenever they may rear their ugly heads.” As CNN is reporting, Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, and other Pakistani cabinet members were supposed to be at the Marriott for iftar (the meal breaking the Ramadan fast), but Rehman Malik says that “their planned dinner was changed at the last minute.” Obviously, the symbolic value of killing Zardari just after he delivers his first major address as president-in which he stresses the need to fight extremism-would have been enormous.

• Military or Intelligence Involvement: The attackers were able to obtain a large amount of military grade explosives. The bombing occurred in a secure area of Islamabad, and the hotel itself was particularly well-guarded because it had been attacked twice before (in 2004 and 2007). The peripheral facts suggest that members of Pakistan’s military or intelligence services (Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI) may have been involved in the plot-just as rogue elements within these services were previously involved in Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and attempts against former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. The presence of religious extremists within Pakistan’s military and ISI is a substantial problem-for Zardari, and for U.S. policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Future Implications:

• The Pakistan Safe Haven: Looming in the background is the safe haven that al-Qaeda has carved out in Pakistan’s tribal areas (which I most recently wrote about here). This safe haven enables the terrorist group to more effectively plan attacks, and to more effectively wage war against coalition forces in Afghanistan. The Pakistani safe haven will be one of the major challenges the next presidential administration faces in the “global war on terror.”

• FBI Role in Investigation?: The U.S. offered to send FBI agents to do forensics work on the Marriott bombing investigation. Some in the U.S. intelligence community were optimistic that Zardari would be more willing than Musharraf to allow outside investigators into Pakistan, for two reasons. First, Zardari is more concerned about infiltration of his own security services than Musharraf was. Second, Musharraf always wanted to protect the military from investigation and embarrassment, and Zardari doesn’t have the same institutional incentives. However, Rehman Malik has rejected this offer of assistance: “We don’t need any help; we reject it.”

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the Director of FDD’s Center for Terrorism Research.

See the original article here.